Drago's wishful thinking

[Ivo Skoric]

To win the elections, HDZ leader Ivo Sanader made a lot of promises, 
many he won't be able to keep. Because that would go against the 
golden rule that you can't have your lunch and eat it. But that's 
kind of like Arnold Schwarzenegger did in California 
(http://www.nytimes.com/2003/12/13/national/13CALI.html?th), and 
nobody is predicting that he is going to fall by March because of 
that. All politicians promise that they will cut taxes and raise 
spending at the same time, to win elections. Most of the voters 
around the world know that is pure B.S. though. It is easy to do the 
simple math: you can't cut revenue and increase expenses and still 
stay in the black. That goes both for Sanader and Schwarzenegger. On 
top of that, unlike Arnold, Ivo is not the most recognized actor in 
the world. So, he is poised to fail, thinks Drago Hedl, the IWPR 
correspondent. SDP's Ivica Racan is already advising local chapters 
to prepare themselves for another elections in Croatia in 6 months. 
Those conclusions may be drawn prematurely. Because, unfortunately 
for the rational people like Drago, most people do not chose their 
leaders according to the rules of arithmetic, but rather according to 
the emotional appeal. How else would we explain the phenomenon of 
Bush's victory? However, given that HDZ will not have working 
majority in Croatian parliament, while having the government, may 
indeed bring some interesting dynamics in the Croatian politics.
ivo

From: www.iwpr.net

CROATIA: MINORITY GOVERNMENT SURVIVAL BATTLE

Opposition suspect new administration will only last a matter of 
months.

By Drago Hedl in Osijek

Croatia faces instability following the formation of a right-wing
government that lacks a working majority in parliament. 

President Stipe Mesic on December 9 proposed Croatian Democratic 
Union, HDZ, leader Ivo Sanader as prime minister after the party 
emerged the largest in the November 23 elections. 

But with only 66 of the 152 seats in parliament, the HDZ needs 
suitable coalition partners if it is to be able to govern. 

Under pressure from the European Union, Sanader has already backed 
off from a coalition with the hard-right Croatian Party of Rights, 
HSP, a natural ally.

A second potential partner, the Croatian Peasant Party, HSS, which 
has nine deputies, withdrew after its leaders came under pressure 
from party members opposed to a coalition with the HDZ. 

Not being able to form coalition, the incoming administration instead
offered expensive concessions to the 11 deputies it needed to 
establish a minority government.  They come from other small parties, 
including the Party of Pensioners and various ethnic minority groups. 


The concessions, observers say, will bankrupt the new government.  

In return for the support of the pensioner party's three deputies, 
Sanader has promised amongst other things pension rises that are 
pegged to increases in the cost of living.

Outgoing labour and welfare minister Davorko Vidovic said Sanader was
"throwing dust in the eyes of the public". Describing the promises as
scandalous, he said the mathematics behind them were "nonsense". 

"For pensions to increase to around 70 per cent of average salaries, 
GDP would have to grow by 15 to 20 per cent annually. Even then it 
would take 15 years," he said.

Equally controversially Sanader has promised the Italian minority in
Istria a bilingual policy and restitution of property seized after 
1945 when the region was detached from Italy and joined to 
Yugoslavia. 

The pledges threaten to saddle Croatia with a massive compensation 
bill for the former owners of Croatian property who now live on both 
sides of the border. 

Sanader has further pledged to secure pensions for ethnic Germans in
Croatia who were jailed in labour camps after the second world war. 
About 3,500 still live in Croatia and the money owed to them will add 
further to the bill. 

The HDZ has offered other groups in society expensive sweeteners,
including increased benefits for mothers and war veterans. 
Businessmen have been told VAT will be cut from 22 to 20 per cent. 

How Sanader's government can square these pledges with the need to
continue repayments of the country's foreign debt. It will have to 
pay around a fifth of its 19 billion US dollar deficit next year.

Economic experts warn that the discrepancy between promises and 
actual resources will hit home in March when parliament has to agree 
a budget. 

Ante Zigman, of the Reiffeisen bank in Zagreb, said the cut in VAT 
alone will deny the government 500 million euro, which it cannot 
afford, "Not only will he [Sanader] not fulfill promises he has made 
but also fail to increase production as he planned, either." 

Members of the outgoing government led by Ivica Racan's Social 
Democratic Party are now predicting the government will fall as early 
as March. Racan is already touring party branches, alerting them to 
possibility of new elections in six months. 

Alongside financial headaches, the government can expect to be 
buffeted by internal conflicts over the Hague war crimes tribunal, 
which many members of Sanader's party detest. 

Demands for the surrender of a popular former army general, Ante 
Gotovina, indicted for crimes against humanity against the Serb 
minority in 1995, were a factor in bringing the HDZ nationalists back 
to power. 

Additionally, the minority government will face strong opposition. 
The SDP with its 43 seats is not the only party banking on early 
elections. Opposition will come from left-leaning Croatian People's 
Party, with 11 deputies. On the right flank, the HSP, with eight 
deputies, has been hurt by HDZ's refusal to accept it as a partner 
and is planning its own revenge in parliament. 

Therefore, the HDZ will have difficulty getting through any 
legislation that demands a two-thirds majority, such as planned 
constitutional changes.

Opposition attacks will increase after April, when the EU is to rule 
on Croatia's readiness to apply for membership of the union. 

The opposition is not expected to hinder the adoption of key laws
connected with membership before April, as that would damage its
popularity. But once the EU makes its decision, opposition parties 
will no longer have any incentive to compromise for the sake of the 
national interest. 

To pre-empt this situation, Sanader has apparently tried to win over 
a number of  SDP deputies to his own party. 

Three people on the SDP list say they were the target of Sanader's
attention, namely Marko Filipovic, a popular sportsman, Ljuba Jurcic, 
the current economy minister, and Vesna Skulic, a deputy. All three 
say they turned down the HDZ, which denies it ever approached them. 

Racan, however, insists that Sanader is resorting to the murky 
methods once employed by the former HDZ leader and Croatian president 
Franjo Tudjman. Tudjman's officials frequently offered opposition 
members political or financial bribes to defect to the HDZ. 

They were used notoriously after the 1996 opposition victory in local
elections in Zagreb to win over a few councillors and thus prevent 
the opposition from taking power in the capital. 

Sanader will be Croatia's first leader of a minority government since
independence in 1991. The battle for survival looks as if it has 
begun even before he has been appointed prime minister. 

Drago Hedl is a regular IWPR contributor.

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Ivo Skoric
19 Baxter Street
Rutland VT 05701
802.775.7257
ivo at balkansnet.org
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