Iraqi Elections

[Ivo Skoric]

If one looks at the graph representing the number of killed American 
soldiers per day in Iraq after president Bush declared the end of the 
major hostilities, one thing strikes the eye immediately: the lines 
representing the number of killed are much higher (meaning more 
killed) and much more dense (meaning more attacks over time) in the 
period March 2004 until today than in the period May 2003 - February 
2004, suggesting that insurgenycy increased in size and efficiency, 
despite everything that the US did to quell it.

But there is another graph - a map actually - that shows incidence of 
attacks per geographic location in Iraq. That shows that the Kurdish 
part of Iraq is practically at peace, and that about 80% of the 
territory is indeed under control, whether because it is inhabited by 
Kurds or Shia, or whether it is a barren dessert. Most of the attacks 
are concentrated in Bhagdad and Sunni areas around Bhagdad. But can 
Americans count on controlling Iraq long term without controlling 
Bhagdad?

Elections were, of course, a success. All the Kurds and most of the 
Shia voted. That was enough to make a good voter turnout. Still, it 
was worse voter turnout that in Vietnam 1967. Does this mean 
Americans get to stay in Iraq shorter or longer, it remains to be 
seen....

ivo


------- Forwarded message follows -------
U.S. Encouraged by Vietnam Vote :
 Officials Cite 83% Turnout Despite Vietcong Terror

by Peter Grose, Special to the New York Times

(4 Sept. 1967: p. 2)


WASHINGTON, Sept. 3-- United States officials were surprised and
heartened today at the size of turnout in South Vietnam's 
presidential election despite a Vietcong terrorist campaign to 
disrupt the voting.

According to reports from Saigon, 83 per cent of the 5.85 million
registered voters cast their ballots yesterday.  Many of them risked
reprisals threatened by the Vietcong.

The size of the popular vote and the inability of the Vietcong to
destroy the election machinery were the two salient facts in a
preliminary assessment of the nation election based on the incomplete
returns reaching here.

Pending more detailed reports, neither the State Department nor the
White House would comment on the balloting or the victory of the
military candidates, Lieut. Gen. Nguyen Van Thieu, who was running 
for president, and Premier Nguyen Cao Ky, the candidate for vice
president.

A successful election has long been seen as the keystone in President
Johnson's policy of encouraging the growth of constitutional 
processes in South Vietnam.  The election was the culmination of a
constitutional development that began in January, 1966, to which
President Johnson gave his personal commitment when he met Premier Ky
and General Thieu, the chief of state, in Honolulu in February.

The purpose of the voting was to give legitimacy to the Saigon
Government, which has been founded only on coups and power plays 
since November, 1963, when President Ngo Dinh Deim was overthrown by 
a military junta.

Few members of that junta are still around, most having been ousted 
or exiled in subsequent shifts of power.


Significance Not Diminished

The fact that the backing of the electorate has gone to the generals
who have been ruling South Vietnam for the last two years does not, 
in the Administration's view, diminish the significance of the
constitutional step that has been taken.

The hope here is that the new government will be able to maneuver 
with a confidence and legitimacy long lacking in South Vietnamese 
politics.
That hope could have been dashed either by a small turnout, 
indicating widespread scorn or a lack of interest in constitutional 
development, or by the Vietcong's disruption of the balloting.

American officials had hoped for an 80 per cent turnout. That was the
figure in the election in September for the Constituent Assembly.
Seventy-eight per cent of the registered voters went to the polls in
elections for local officials last spring.

Before the results of the presidential election started to come in,
the American officials warned that the turnout might be less than 80
per cent because the polling place would be open for two or three
hours less than in the election a year ago.  The turnout  of 83 per
cent was a welcome surprise. The turnout in the 1964 United States
Presidential election was 62 per cent.

Captured documents and interrogations indicated in the last week a
serious concern among Vietcong leaders that a major effort would be
required to render the election meaningless.  This effort has not
succeeded, judging from the reports from Saigon.




----End Forwarded Message(s)----