Croatia Elections

[Ivo Skoric]

This Sunday there are elections in Croatia.

Here are my predictions: well, as the Oracle in the Matrix would say: 
"one candidate will win, others will lose." Croatia has no minimum 
turnout rules like serbia, so there will inevitably be a winner. All 
things considered only Racan and Sanader have realistic chances to be 
contenders. And one of them will win. It may be a very, very tight 
race. Because, kind of like between Democrats and Republicans in the 
US, the line between HDZ and SDP in Croatia got more blurred with 
time... neither is SDP that much left, and socialist, and secular, 
nor is HDZ any more a bunch of right wing nationalist flag-waving 
zealots. Racan has a slight advantage as an incumbent in culture that 
is historically irritated by change. Sanader has a slight advantage 
because he is untested in times when most of the incumbents are 
perceived incompetent and/or corrupt. However, whatever happens it 
would mean surprisingly little for the future of Croatia, because the 
leading candidates programs do not differ that substantially. Which 
may eventually lead to a Serbia-like voter apathy (albeit without the 
voter turnout requirement rules).

ivo

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Ivo Skoric
19 Baxter Street
Rutland VT 05701
802.775.7257
ivo at balkansnet.org
balkansnet.org