Is Serbia next to say NO to US?

[Ivo Skoric]

First Croatia, now Serbia. The US is having some problems even 
with the "New Europe" - of former Yugoslav states, Bosnia signed 
Article 98, but Croatia and Slovenia did not. And Serbia did not yet 
say whether it would do it or not.

Serbia seems to be happy with signing, if the US greases that 
signature with loads of re-construction money (particularly because 
those were US bombs that necessitated that re-construction). With 
dollar in free fall (Treasury's Snow and GW Bush finally got on the 
same page and decided not to slow dollars fall), I doubt the US is 
going to dish fortunes around.

In which case the EU seems to look as a better deal. Although, the 
increasingly Balkanized International Community made the world 
very hostile to the weak, both Washington and Brussels issued 
their own "with us or against us" memos.

Maybe the headquarters of NATO can be moved from Brussels to 
New York, and the headquarters of UN from New York to Brussels, 
in the tradition of the 'population exchange' practiced between Serb 
peasants in Croatian Slavonia and Croat peasants in Serbian 
Vojvodina - who switched their lands, when the political situation 
became intolerable.

ivo

from www.iwpr.net
SERBIA'S US DILEMMA

Belgrade is being forced to make a difficult choice over its 
international
allegiances.

By Jan Briza in Novi Sad

The Serbian government may have to choose between a future in 
the European
Union and closer financial and diplomatic ties to the United States,
before the end of the month.

Belgrade now has less than three weeks to accept or refuse to 
sign an
agreement outlawing the extradition of United States citizens to the
International Criminal Court, ICC, in The Hague.

If the agreement is signed before July 1 - as Washington insists it 
must
be - Serbia-Montenegro's hopes of joining the EU, which is strongly
opposed to America's demands for exemption from the ICC, may 
be dashed.

But if Belgrade chooses to stand with Brussels, millions of dollars 
of
much-needed US aid could be lost, and with it any hope of 
revitalising
Serbia's shattered economy.

The dilemma was summed up by Serbia-Montenegro president 
Svetozar Marovic,
who said, "We live in Europe, and want to have our place there. But 
on the
other hand, our foreign policy priorities are friendship and expanded
cooperation with the US."

Foreign Minister Goran Svilanovic's June 7 statement that "there 
will be
no haste in taking this serious decision", has led analysts to 
speculate
that Serbia-Montenegro will not reveal its choice until after the EU's
Thessalonica Summit on June 21 at the earliest.

Svilanovic has emphasised that while the Serbian and Montenegrin
governments will make a final decision together, the process itself 
will
be public, and arguments for and against Washington's request, 
will be
presented to the people.

Belgrade is now in very delicate position. Not only are the 
authorities
worried by Brussels' statement that "all those who wish to be a 
part of
the European Union must honour its principles" - which implies the
rejection of Washington's demands - they are even more concerned 
by the
domestic implications.

Questions are now being asked in Serbia as to how America can 
demand that
Belgrade extradite all war crimes suspects to stand trial at The 
Hague
tribunal, while simultaneously asking that its citizens be exempt 
from the
same process at the ICC.

Many local institutions and non-governmental organisations are 
now asking
the government to reject the extradition agreement. Belgrade's 
Human
Rights Centre, led by prominent international law professor Vojin
Dimitrijevic, said, "It is hypocritical that America, which 
unambiguously
insists on cooperation with ... The Hague tribunal, should 
undermine the
attempt to found a permanent international criminal court."

The Serbian media has taken a similar stance, devoting much 
editorial
space to criticism of the Bush administration while allowing little, if
any, argument in favour of the non-extradition agreement.

Anti-American feelings have long run high in Serbia - a product of 
the
isolationist tactics of the Milosevic regime and the 1999 NATO 
bombing
campaign, during which people were encouraged to view NATO and 
the US as
one and the same.

According the latest public opinion survey, carried out in May by the
Medium Gallup agency, 80.9 per cent of respondents said they 
thought
poorly of NATO and 73.7 per cent viewed the US in a negative light.

However, a poll conducted at the same time by the Belgrade 
weekly NIN
showed more than half of Serbia's citizens were in favour of the 
country
joining NATO in the interests of reintegration with the international
community - this in spite of their traditional antipathy toward the
alliance.

Such opinions have implications for the ruling coalition, Democratic
Opposition of Serbia, DOS, which is under increasing pressure from
opposition parties clamouring for early elections.

The risk facing the government becomes clear when its slim 
majority in the
250-strong parliament is taken into account. If early elections are 
forced
by the opposition, any decision to stand with America and sign the
non-extradition agreement may prove fatal.

On the other hand, the government knows full well that it will be 
almost
impossible to revive the economy and raise the Serbian people's low
standard of living without financial help from the US. And unless 
there is
a marked improvement in these areas, DOS stands little chance of 
being
re-elected anyway.

Observers say that Washington is well aware of these factors, and 
has been
engaging in some very subtle diplomacy to improve relations 
between the
two nations in the run up to the treaty deadline.

The US let Belgrade off very lightly over the Orao arms-to-Iraq 
scandal -
when it was revealed that Republika Srpska had provided 
equipment and
training to Saddam Hussein's regime in defiance of the UN  - and 
chose to
turn a blind eye to Serbia's neutral stance over America's attack on 
Iraq.

Following the assassination of prime minister Zoran Djindjic on 
March 13,
US Secretary of State Colin Powell visited Belgrade to express his
condolences to the murdered man's family - a gesture that 
underlined
America's interest in Serbia and its reforming government.

And on May 29, President Bush cancelled sanctions that had been 
in place
against Belgrade for eleven years. At the same time, the 
government here
was told that local companies may be given profitable contracts 
connected
to the reconstruction of Iraq - which could help to revive the Serbian
economy.

This alone would be a major boost to DOS's chances of re-election 
in the
2004 parliamentary elections - and could shift the balance in favour 
of
signing the non-extradition agreement.

If it is guided by the current public mood - and stays mindful of the
threat of early elections - the Serbian government may still reject
America's request. But if it is looking to the future, it may have no
other choice than to sign.

Jan Briza is the editor of daily Dnevnik from Novi Sad.