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(4warded: a letter from a former president of the bank of botswana)

Subject: Ground Zero
Date: Thu, 20 Sep 2001 06:31:09 +0200


Dearest Di, Tim and Kath,

Thank you so much for your observations and insights, telephonic and via
email. They have brought the whole frightful affair into vivid
perspective.

I have spent much of the past week, when not glued to the TV (day and
night), trying to think through the possible causes and implications of
what
happened. The latter are easier to comprehend than the former. The
economic
implications are certainly crowding in on us faster than I thought they
would. There is now no doubt that there will be a serious global
recession.
Unemployment in the major economies will be significantly higher than the
most pessimistic analysts predicted. Third World countries will feel the
pain no less than the industrialised countries. Global economic
integration
will be difficult to defend. All that seems quite evident.

Distant as Botswana is, in terms of space and economic linkages, we felt
the
impact immediately. Air Botswana had to fly plane loads of tourists,
returning home after holidays in the Okavango and Chobe, back to Gaborone
from Johannesburg and accommodate them here after their intercontinental
flights were cancelled. Debswana quickly announced plans to scale back
diamond production. Botswana's foreign exchange reserves, mainly in US$ or
$-linked investment instruments, took a knock. That means that the Bank of
Botswana's profits this year and next will be well below the figures
forecast, which will mean, in turn, less revenue to the Government and
therefore lower levels of economic activity in the years ahead. At the
micro-level, these developments are being cited by corporations and
individuals as a justification for not joining Transparency International
Botswana (TIBOT) at a time when I am trying to recruit members to help
combat corruption in Botswana. The ripples go on and on. The amount of
damage which a handful of fanatic suicide hijackers can inflict on this
closely knit world we live in is beyond comprehension.

How and why did it happen? We now have two lively FM radio stations in
Gaborone, one the brainchild of Solly Monyame who regards Tim as his role
model and went to Thornhill with Jen and Tess. Solly conducts an early
morning call-in radio talk show. The topic this past week has been
terrorism
and the terrorist attacks in the US. The views expressed by callers seemed
to me to reflect the dichotomy of public opinion. About half the callers
grieved with America and recalled all the benefits which Botswana gained
from US involvement here: Peace Corps, capital investment, aid. They spoke
of their fondness for Americans and, in the case of Batswana who had
studied
in the US, their admiration for America. There were lots of flowers
outside
the US Embassy here.

The other half were less sympathetic. They pointed out that the US
Government had sided with and assisted virtually every undemocratic,
racist
and oppressive regime and corrupt dictator which the world has known in
the
past century, from apartheid South Africa, to Selassie, Tubman, Mobutu,
Savimbi and Moi in Africa, and has taken the wrong side in most national
and
regional conflicts (e.g. Viet Nam, Iran, Korea, China (initially), the
Middle East, Cuba, etc). The obsession with communism was clearly a major
factor in many of these alignments. (Ironic to discover that Bin Laden was
himself recruited and trained to fight Russia!) America's unconditional
support for Israel was considered by many to be a tragic mistake.

It has also been striking to hear the word 'arrogant' used so often in
Botswana, as it has in CNN's many interviews, to describe Americans. All
the
Americans I know are the opposite of arrogant: warm, friendly, personable,
egalitarian. But, watching CNN, one couldn't help noting, once again, how
often the American leadership seems to find it necessary to describe
America
as the 'greatest country on earth' or 'in the history of mankind' or 'in
the
civilised world'. Don't they stop to think how the Japanese, Chinese,
Indians, Arabs, Germans, Russians, French and Brits might feel about that
that? Several local callers in Gaborone made the point that being the
greatest country in the world has not caused the US to honour its
financial
obligations to the UN, replenish IDA, or sign global warming treaties.
Economic size, technological advancement and military might does not
equate
to 'greatness' or 'civilisation', they say. I agree with them.

To explain what has happened solely in terms of the chest-thumping
behaviour
of American leaders is clearly ridiculous. There are so many other factors
involved, some global, others particularistic. Perhaps it is too early to
try to draw conclusions - the human tragedy is too immediate -  but it
will
be important, as America and the rest of the world grapples with the
aftermath of the recent hijackings, to consider what needs to be changed
if
further tragedies of this kind are to be averted. Perhaps it is naive to
expect that there will ever be any protection from small bands of totally
committed, disciplined, suicidal terrorists?

One thing that has heartened me, as I mentioned in an earlier email, is to
observe two common reactions among so many young people in the US. The
first
is their willingness to reach out and help others, to make personal
sacrifices. The other was their recognition of the importance of becoming
involved in the world, not retreating into fortress America and
surrounding
themselves with hi-tec gadgets and suburban comfort. The anger of the
people
who tried to disrupt the WTO and IMF/World Bank meetings was terribly
manipulated and misplaced, in my view, but at least it showed concern for
such phenomena as poverty, environmental degradation, cultural diversity,
global warming, and international corruption. Perhaps the recent obscene
acts of terrorism will make everyone understand that what happens in
Afghanistan or in the minds of religious zealots can affect us all. I hope
that I live to see the day when Cailan and Zorabel and Dale and ? are not
embarrassed to say that they, like their aunt and uncle, want to save the
world - and do something about it.

One last observation. I couldn't agree more with Di's view of shrub. (Why
do
you call him shrub with a capital s?) Leaving aside the shenanigans in
Florida, how could 'the greatest nation in the world' elect such an
uninformed, insensitive and inarticulate man to be its President? His
sentences usually comprise five or six words only. But when he attempts a
slightly more complex statement and gets half way through it - usually
marked with ers and ums  - one wonders if he has any idea how to conclude
it. Often he doesn't! What a joy to listen to Colin Powell. On the other
hand, the street interviews conducted by CNN and the other international
networks revealed that most Americans, especially the younger ones, are
scarcely more articulate than shrub. (Perhaps that's why he won?) I have
never heard so many 'likes' and 'rights' and 'y'knows' and 'y'sees'. One
very brave young woman, whose interview was shown several times on CNN,
managed to cram 14 'likes' into one sentence. I counted. How's that for
efficient communication?

Enough pontification. Keep the emails and telephone calls coming.

I am copying this to the exemplary Eleys in London and the lovely Lambkins
in Rome to confirm that I have obtained the necessary sponsorship and
visas
to attend the 10th International Anti-Corruption Conference in Prague in
early October and look forward to seeing them en route. I will send
further
emails to them giving flight details.

Much love to you all,

Quill